burjui vs Creepwave — prediction SSS# · Dota 2

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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3

result vs prediction

Bburjuiloss 0:2

series probability

37%63%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Creepwavewin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

burjui

No games played over 6 months.

Creepwave

Nyx Assassinoften banned

Alexxo · 3 games

67%

Lich

Fishman · 2 games

50%

Wraith Kingoften banned

Crystallis · 2 games

100%

Batrideroften banned

Malr1ne · 1 game

Marsoften banned

ATF · 1 game

100%

Night Stalkeroften banned

ATF · 1 game

100%

Phantom Assassinoften banned

Crystallis · 1 game

Puckoften banned

Malr1ne · 1 game

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

69 picks · 150 bans

49%

Puck

60 picks · 165 bans

50%

Earth Spirit

57 picks · 48 bans

62%

Void Spirit

49 picks · 98 bans

55%

Undying

46 picks · 68 bans

58%

Rubick

45 picks · 24 bans

51%

Monkey King

44 picks · 94 bans

44%

Phoenix

44 picks · 56 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%

Hero pool strength54% Creepwave

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total63% Creepwave

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct43:41

burjui 42%Creepwave 58%

The model gave 58% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 48:05.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo