Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionBburjuiloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
burjui
Earth Spirit
KiLLoManceR · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Max · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Max · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
canceL^^ · 1 game
Disruptor
Atoufix · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Max · 1 game
Grimstroke
Atoufix · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Atoufix · 1 game
Hellbear Smashers
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 5 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Gilgir · 4 games
Oracle
tOfu · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ace · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Stormstormer · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
tOfu · 3 games
Earth Spirit
Gilgir · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
122 picks · 231 bans
Puck
122 picks · 275 bans
Earth Spirit
108 picks · 87 bans
Void Spirit
100 picks · 157 bans
Phoenix
97 picks · 99 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Nyx Assassin
76 picks · 275 bans
Keeper of the Light
75 picks · 144 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:30
burjui 39%Hellbear Smashers 61%
The model gave 61% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 24:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMax
Wraith KingAce
Void SpiritcanceL^^
LinaStormstormer
Shadow ShamanKiLLoManceR
Ember SpiritMISERY
UndyingAtoufix
Keeper of the LightGilgir
little data
Ancient ApparitiontOfu
Game 2prediction correct15:33
burjui 38%Hellbear Smashers 62%
The model gave 62% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 30:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingMax
BloodseekerAce
MarscanceL^^
InvokerStormstormer
Earth SpiritKiLLoManceR
TidehunterMISERY
DisruptorAtoufix
Witch DoctortOfu
59% · 20 games
Nyx AssassinGilgir
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 67%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2