Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs predictionBburjuiloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
burjui
Wraith Kingoften banned
Max · 2 games
Disruptor
Atoufix · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Max · 1 game
Earth Spirit
KiLLoManceR · 1 game
Grimstroke
Atoufix · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Max · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Atoufix · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Symmetrical · 1 game
Spider Pigzs
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 5 games
Brewmaster
Mitch · 4 games
Rubick
dnz · 4 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 3 games
Jakiro
LeBronDota · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Mitch · 3 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
lil pleb · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
115 picks · 257 bans
Mars
110 picks · 221 bans
Earth Spirit
100 picks · 84 bans
Void Spirit
96 picks · 148 bans
Phoenix
91 picks · 94 bans
Rubick
75 picks · 36 bans
Keeper of the Light
70 picks · 135 bans
Nyx Assassin
70 picks · 256 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:27
burjui 38%Spider Pigzs 62%
The model gave 62% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RikiMax
LinaNo!ob
BatridercanceL^^
Wraith KingYuma
Earth SpiritKiLLoManceR
Bounty HunterMitch
Witch DoctorAtoufix
Tuskdnz
45% · 25 games
OracleLeBronDota
Game 2prediction correct9:32
burjui 40%Spider Pigzs 60%
The model gave 60% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 25:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassincanceL^^
Morphlinglil pleb
JuggernautMax
PuckNo!ob
Earth SpiritKiLLoManceR
MarsMitch
PhoenixAtoufix
Miranadnz
50% · 4 games
Outworld DestroyerLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 73%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2