ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Bushidoloss 0:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
4Pirateswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bushido
Kunkkaoften banned
Covisnine · 5 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 4 games
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 2 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
Hoodwink
jAMES · 2 games
4Pirates
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 526 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 363 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 448 bans
Luna
311 picks · 362 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 568 bans
Dark Willow
272 picks · 144 bans
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 345 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 945 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Bushido
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:38
Bushido 56%4Pirates 44%
The model gave 56% on Bushido — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 57:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightrostislav_999
TerrorbladeOtaker
DoomCovisnine
Timbersawмистер мораль
Storm SpiritDodren
Lionariel
Dark WillowjAMES
Ogre MagiPERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido · 64%
Series result4Pirates 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1