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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
Bushidoloss 1:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Dragon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bushido

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Covisnine · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
100%
Mirana
Mirana
jAMES · 2 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Covisnine · 2 games
100%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
0%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
42%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 8 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
358 picks · 345 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
354 picks · 405 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 507 bans
49%
Sven
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
293 picks · 263 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
280 picks · 387 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 459 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Bushido
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Bushido
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Bushido 53%Dragon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Bushido — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusarostislav_999
50% · 52 games45% · 175 games
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
50% · 246 games58% · 23 games
Huskardualrazee
Huskar
Puck
PuckDodren
48% · 162 games54% · 110 games
EnigmaInfernal
Enigma
Mirana
MiranajAMES
51% · 96 games56% · 69 games
Marciarmageddon
Marci
45% · 179 games
EnchantressMary_y
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct38:26
Bushido 55%Dragon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Bushido — the game was taken by Bushido in 46:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linarostislav_999
44% · 130 games47% · 95 games
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDodren
46% · 105 games52% · 98 games
KunkkaInfernal
Kunkka
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCovisnine
49% · 30 games53% · 61 game
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Mirana
MiranajAMES
57% · 138 games53% · 18 games
Winter Wyvernarmageddon
Winter Wyvern
53% · 131 game
RubickMary_y
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2