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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
Bushidoloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TopTabloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bushido

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Covisnine · 2 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Dodren · 1 game
0%

TopTab

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
smN · 2 games
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
smN · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
0%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
0%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
smN · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
359 picks · 349 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 406 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 258 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 507 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
295 picks · 305 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
285 picks · 256 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
275 picks · 370 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
268 picks · 459 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Bushido
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Bushido
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:10
Bushido 55%TopTab 45%
The model gave 55% on Bushido — the game was taken by Bushido in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight4IVAN
49% · 114 games48% · 288 games
Centaur WarrunnerShergarat
Centaur Warrunner
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCovisnine
52% · 93 games58% · 11 games
AbaddonsmN
Abaddon
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritDodren
46% · 31 game
Mirana
MiranajAMES
55% · 61 game
Game 2prediction missed42:37
Bushido 55%TopTab 45%
The model gave 55% on Bushido — the game was taken by TopTab in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemist4IVAN
56% · 5 games53% · 21 game
Lone DruidShergarat
Lone Druid
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDodren
52% · 13 games44% · 66 games
Treant ProtectorsmN
Treant Protector
Kunkka
KunkkaCovisnine
48% · 45 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowjAMES
64% · 24 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2