PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBBBuyBack Brosloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
InterActive Philippineswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BuyBack Bros
No games played over 6 months.
InterActive Philippines
Puckoften banned
Nishababy · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Dragon Knight
Nishababy · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
403 picks · 363 bans
Snapfire
358 picks · 186 bans
Puck
347 picks · 877 bans
Pugna
305 picks · 350 bans
Dawnbreaker
284 picks · 800 bans
Tusk
284 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
281 picks · 136 bans
Batrider
274 picks · 691 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% BuyBack Bros
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% InterActive Philippines
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:26
BuyBack Bros 43%InterActive Philippines 57%
The model gave 57% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 29:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetWonder'boy
Storm SpiritNishababy
UrsaBeebie
Centaur WarrunnerKimizu
PangolierNevermine
Void SpiritTrazaM
Game 2prediction correct
BuyBack Bros 36%InterActive Philippines 64%
The model gave 64% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines.
Model check result
Model favoriteInterActive Philippines · 64%
Series resultInterActive Philippines 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2