By_Owl Team vs Korb3n Team — prediction SL# · Dota 2

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Streamers League #3 · BO3

result vs prediction

By_Owl Teamwin 2:0

series probability

37%63%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Korb3n Teamloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

By_Owl Team

Crystal Maidensignature

by_Owl · 8 games

88%

Techiessignature

rostikfacekid · 8 games

63%

Kezoften banned

Koma` · 7 games

43%

Lunasignature

Koma` · 6 games

83%

Rubicksignature

rostikfacekid · 6 games

67%

Shadow Fiendsignature

Koma` · 6 games

83%

Silencer

by_Owl · 6 games

50%

Bristleback

blindzone · 5 games

60%

Korb3n Team

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

538 picks · 358 bans

49%

Dark Willow

477 picks · 265 bans

51%

Mirana

416 picks · 186 bans

52%

Winter Wyvern

372 picks · 346 bans

57%

Ember Spirit

346 picks · 528 bans

56%

Windranger

321 picks · 154 bans

52%

Earth Spirit

302 picks · 535 bans

53%

Centaur Warrunner

300 picks · 297 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength57% By_Owl Team

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total63% Korb3n Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed52:13

By_Owl Team 45%Korb3n Team 55%

The model gave 55% on Korb3n Team — the game was taken by By_Owl Team in 31:18.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo