By_Owl Team vs Morphilina Team — prediction BSBХД 11 · Dota 2

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BetBoom Streamers Battle х Динамо 11 · BO3

result vs prediction

By_Owl Teamwin 2:0

series probability

52%48%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Morphilina Teamloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

By_Owl Team

Disruptor

by_Owl · 2 games

100%

Doomoften banned

Koma` · 2 games

50%

Magnusoften banned

avice · 2 games

100%

Warlock

by_Owl · 2 games

50%

Alchemist

Koma` · 1 game

Ancient Apparition

by_Owl · 1 game

Anti-Mageoften banned

Koma` · 1 game

100%

Batrideroften banned

meLes · 1 game

100%

Morphilina Team

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Disruptor

383 picks · 347 bans

52%

Puck

340 picks · 860 bans

52%

Snapfire

338 picks · 170 bans

56%

Pugna

295 picks · 339 bans

54%

Dawnbreaker

281 picks · 790 bans

48%

Tusk

281 picks · 247 bans

47%

Warlock

281 picks · 126 bans

52%

Batrider

273 picks · 684 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%

Hero pool strength53% By_Owl Team

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total52% By_Owl Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct29:11

By_Owl Team 50%Morphilina Team 50%

The model gave 50% on By_Owl Team — the game was taken by By_Owl Team in 30:29.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo