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Streamers League #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
By_Owl Teamwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Stariy_bog Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

By_Owl Team

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
by_Owl · 8 games
88%
Techies
Techiessignature
rostikfacekid · 8 games
63%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Koma` · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
rostikfacekid · 6 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Koma` · 6 games
83%
Silencer
Silencer
by_Owl · 6 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
blindzone · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rostikfacekid · 5 games
60%

Stariy_bog Team

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Коля · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
Stariy bog · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
senna · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Zloba · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Zloba · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristleback
ChodΣX · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Djeka · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
meLes · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
528 picks · 342 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
459 picks · 250 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
407 picks · 183 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
359 picks · 334 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 517 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 138 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 295 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
297 picks · 524 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% By_Owl Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Stariy_bog Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:45
By_Owl Team 48%Stariy_bog Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Stariy_bog Team — the game was taken by Stariy_bog Team in 43:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
Axeblindzone
50% · 147 games44% · 63 games
IoStariy bog
Io
Kez
KezKoma`
51% · 174 games49% · 91 game
SvenEvelone
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritavice
49% · 267 games51% · 42 games
OmniknightDaxak
Omniknight
Ringmaster
RingmasterShishak
60% · 199 games50% · 635 games
HoodwinkCake
Hoodwink
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorby_Owl
44% · 74 games51% · 30 games
OracleMiposhka
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed25:19
By_Owl Team 49%Stariy_bog Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Stariy_bog Team — the game was taken by By_Owl Team in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKoma`
51% · 140 games48% · 75 games
Dark SeerDaxak
Dark Seer
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightavice
44% · 276 games51% · 299 games
PuckStariy bog
Puck
Visage
Visageblindzone
29% · 3 games55% · 56 games
SvenEvelone
Sven
Dazzle
Dazzleby_Owl
47% · 142 games57% · 82 games
Winter WyvernMiposhka
Winter Wyvern
Tusk
TuskShishak
49% · 378 games52% · 427 games
HoodwinkCake
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed35:18
By_Owl Team 48%Stariy_bog Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Stariy_bog Team — the game was taken by By_Owl Team in 37:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKoma`
52% · 140 games51% · 80 games
NecrophosDaxak
Necrophos
Axe
Axeblindzone
47% · 203 games51% · 280 games
TinyStariy bog
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void Spiritavice
48% · 193 games46% · 53 games
AlchemistEvelone
Alchemist
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeShishak
50% · 70 games51% · 93 games
MiranaCake
Mirana
Dazzle
Dazzleby_Owl
47% · 117 games55% · 217 games
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteStariy_bog Team · 55%
Series resultBy_Owl Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3