Streamers League #3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
By_Owl Team
Crystal Maidensignature
by_Owl · 8 games
Techiessignature
rostikfacekid · 7 games
Rubicksignature
rostikfacekid · 6 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Koma` · 6 games
Silencer
by_Owl · 6 games
Bristleback
blindzone · 5 games
Hoodwink
rostikfacekid · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
avice · 5 games
Stray Team
Necrophossignature
Stray · 8 games
Rubick
Vovapain · 7 games
Sniperoften banned
Stray · 7 games
Spirit Breaker
Goodoq · 7 games
Tusk
Vovapain · 7 games
Pudge
DkFogas · 5 games
Clockwerk
Goodoq · 4 games
Death Prophet
Stray · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
509 picks · 322 bans
Dark Willow
432 picks · 229 bans
Mirana
394 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
344 picks · 311 bans
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 493 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 285 bans
Windranger
282 picks · 130 bans
Earth Spirit
280 picks · 502 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% By_Owl Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% By_Owl Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:45
By_Owl Team 56%Stray Team 44%
The model gave 56% on By_Owl Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezKoma`
Svenzvёzd
Storm Spiritavice
NecrophosStray
Slarkblindzone
EnigmaDkFogas
Techiesrostikfacekid
RubickVovapain
Witch Doctorby_Owl
Spirit BreakerGoodoq
Game 2prediction missed24:47
By_Owl Team 55%Stray Team 45%
The model gave 55% on By_Owl Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 42:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidblindzone
Tinyzvёzd
Monkey KingKoma`
Dark SeerDkFogas
Outworld Destroyeravice
SniperStray
Undyingby_Owl
Spirit BreakerGoodoq
Dark Willowrostikfacekid
Witch DoctorVovapain
Model check result
Model favoriteBy_Owl Team · 59%
Series resultStray Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2