Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Byzantine Raidersloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Cutwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Byzantine Raiders
No games played over 6 months.
The Cut
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TingleK1ng · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
210 picks · 452 bans
Mars
185 picks · 341 bans
Void Spirit
182 picks · 252 bans
Earth Spirit
173 picks · 140 bans
Phoenix
147 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
144 picks · 238 bans
Nyx Assassin
135 picks · 456 bans
Rubick
128 picks · 76 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 79%
Series resultThe Cut 0:2
Series predictioncorrect