ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Call911loss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CCastawakewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Call911
No games played over 6 months.
Castawake
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
435 picks · 561 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 381 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 443 bans
Luna
318 picks · 377 bans
Enchantress
301 picks · 576 bans
Dark Willow
281 picks · 150 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 334 bans
Shadow Demon
258 picks · 983 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Call911
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Castawake
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Call911 35%Castawake 65%
The model gave 65% on Castawake — the game was taken by Castawake.
Game 2prediction correct
Call911 35%Castawake 65%
The model gave 65% on Castawake — the game was taken by Castawake.
Model check result
Model favoriteCastawake · 65%
Series resultCastawake 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2