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The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Carstensz Esportswin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
cincai teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Carstensz Esports

Slardar
Slardaroften banned
seimei · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ace12 · 4 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
seimei · 2 games
50%
Lich
Lich
ace12 · 2 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Dreamocel · 2 games
50%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Dreamocel · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
ace12 · 2 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Dreamocel · 2 games
0%

cincai team

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
616 picks · 399 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
517 picks · 288 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 584 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
465 picks · 387 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
424 picks · 595 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 969 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
339 picks · 283 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 502 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% cincai team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Carstensz Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:11
Carstensz Esports 63%cincai team 37%
The model gave 63% on Carstensz Esports — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports in 24:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyDreamocel
54% · 273 games50% · 106 games
Faceless VoidMangO
Faceless Void
Batrider
Batriderseimei
50% · 225 games47% · 157 games
DoomRed
Doom
Silencer
Silencerace12
51% · 116 games46% · 130 games
Monkey KingWonder'boy
Monkey King
49% · 221 game
PhoenixTrazaM
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct43:13
Carstensz Esports 63%cincai team 37%
The model gave 63% on Carstensz Esports — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports in 30:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomseimei
55% · 90 games48% · 102 games
InvokerWonder'boy
Invoker
Tiny
TinyDreamocel
50% · 173 games54% · 45 games
SniperMangO
Sniper
Bane
Baneace12
56% · 91 game42% · 25 games
Night StalkerRed
Night Stalker
42% · 182 games
AxeTrazaM
Axe
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz Esports · 73%
Series resultCarstensz Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2