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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Carstensz Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
REKONIXwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Carstensz Esports

Slardar
Slardaroften banned
seimei · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ace12 · 3 games
67%
Axe
Axe
seimei · 2 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Dreamocel · 2 games
50%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Dreamocel · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
ace12 · 2 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Dreamocel · 2 games
0%
Bane
Bane
ace12 · 1 game
100%

REKONIX

Tiny
Tiny
TraVins · 24 games
42%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
inYourdreaM · 19 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 18 games
22%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
dalul · 17 games
53%
Kez
Kezsignature
TraVins · 16 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
605 picks · 377 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
498 picks · 273 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 582 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 391 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
408 picks · 568 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
345 picks · 937 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 872 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
333 picks · 282 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Carstensz Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total86% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:33
Carstensz Esports 30%REKONIX 70%
The model gave 70% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 39:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerDreamocel
45% · 161 game58% · 33 games
Drow RangerTraVins
Drow Ranger
Slardar
Slardarseimei
49% · 208 games45% · 190 games
PangolierinYourdreaM
Pangolier
Lich
Lichace12
46% · 69 games48% · 74 games
Primal BeastFbz
Primal Beast
48% · 76 games
Techiesdalul
Techies
69% · 65 games
Treant ProtectorVarizh
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct30:38
Carstensz Esports 31%REKONIX 69%
The model gave 69% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 44:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDreamocel
50% · 288 games48% · 188 games
Shadow FiendTraVins
Shadow Fiend
Slardar
Slardarseimei
50% · 361 game49% · 92 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkace12
51% · 510 games44% · 356 games
PangolierinYourdreaM
Pangolier
58% · 168 games
BaneVarizh
Bane
50% · 355 games
Tuskdalul
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 86%
Series resultREKONIX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2