ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportswin 1:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Brameloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cascade Esports
Rubick
jAMES · 11 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 7 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 5 games
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 4 games
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Brame
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 16 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 12 games
Juggernautoften banned
Focus · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 978 bans
Lion
373 picks · 198 bans
Mars
364 picks · 586 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 171 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
287 picks · 637 bans
Void Spirit
277 picks · 473 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total63% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 63%
Series resultCascade Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed