Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportsloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cascade Esports
Rubick
Mira · 6 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 3 games
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 2 games
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 2 games
Mirana
jAMES · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
MieRo · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Shisui · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Kidaro · 2 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
285 picks · 569 bans
Void Spirit
253 picks · 323 bans
Mars
226 picks · 404 bans
Earth Spirit
211 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
185 picks · 335 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 569 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 209 bans
Wraith King
179 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Cascade Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:28
Cascade Esports 40%HellRaisers 60%
The model gave 60% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 30:45.
Game 2prediction correct16:25
Cascade Esports 40%HellRaisers 60%
The model gave 60% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 23:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 60%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2