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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ViKin.ggwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cascade Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Mastery · 1 game
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Shisui · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 1 game
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Zitraks · 1 game
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Kidaro · 1 game
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Mastery · 1 game
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
0%

ViKin.gg

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tobi · 5 games
60%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Seleri · 5 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Seleri · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 4 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Aramis · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
BOOM · 3 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
BOOM · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
249 picks · 515 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
229 picks · 280 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
207 picks · 378 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
196 picks · 154 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
168 picks · 290 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
165 picks · 190 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
164 picks · 518 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
157 picks · 202 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed57:39
Cascade Esports 43%ViKin.gg 57%
The model gave 57% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 47:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverZitraks
45% · 14 gameslittle data
SpectreShad
Spectre
Timbersaw
TimbersawMieRo
44% · 26 games53% · 33 games
Nature's ProphetKheZu
Nature's Prophet
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerShisui
44% · 27 games55% · 66 games
Void SpiritBOOM
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranajAMES
51% · 43 games51% · 51 game
Earth SpiritAramis
Earth Spirit
Rubick
RubickKidaro
49% · 51 game48% · 11 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct6:34
Cascade Esports 47%ViKin.gg 53%
The model gave 53% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 22:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritZitraks
58% · 83 games38% · 47 games
JuggernautShad
Juggernaut
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordShisui
54% · 45 games61% · 32 games
Storm SpiritBOOM
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMieRo
54% · 11 games43% · 41 game
TimbersawKheZu
Timbersaw
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightKidaro
52% · 86 games47% · 70 games
Earth SpiritAramis
Earth Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkjAMES
53% · 23 games42% · 58 games
GrimstrokeSeleri
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct17:36
Cascade Esports 43%ViKin.gg 57%
The model gave 57% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 33:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IoZitraks
51% · 10 games55% · 15 games
Phantom AssassinShad
Phantom Assassin
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMieRo
38% · 29 games61% · 45 games
Death ProphetKheZu
Death Prophet
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerShisui
38% · 29 games50% · 14 games
Queen of PainBOOM
Queen of Pain
Rubick
RubickjAMES
38% · 50 games68% · 36 games
EarthshakerAramis
Earthshaker
Undying
UndyingKidaro
50% · 27 games51% · 35 games
GrimstrokeSeleri
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 60%
Series resultViKin.gg 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3