Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportsloss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
XXactJlepbIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cascade Esports
No games played over 6 months.
XactJlepbI
Shadow Shaman
KingR · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
nofear · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MagicaL · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
lightless · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
lightless · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nofear · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Funn1k · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Funn1k · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
58 picks · 121 bans
Puck
50 picks · 132 bans
Earth Spirit
47 picks · 38 bans
Void Spirit
43 picks · 74 bans
Phoenix
38 picks · 44 bans
Monkey King
36 picks · 74 bans
Undying
34 picks · 59 bans
Shadow Shaman
33 picks · 7 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% XactJlepbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:40
Cascade Esports 51%XactJlepbI 49%
The model gave 51% on Cascade Esports — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 1:08:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterZitraks
Terrorbladelightless
Troll WarlordShisui
PugnaMagicaL
ViperKidaro
WindrangerKingR
SlardarMastery
Elder Titannofear
RubickMira
Nyx AssassinFunn1k
Game 2prediction missed36:25
Cascade Esports 45%XactJlepbI 55%
The model gave 55% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 34:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinZitraks
Templar AssassinMagicaL
GrimstrokeShisui
Troll Warlordlightless
Centaur WarrunnerMastery
Void SpiritFunn1k
RubickMira
Dark WillowKingR
UndyingKidaro
Elder Titannofear
Game 3prediction correct22:55
Cascade Esports 49%XactJlepbI 51%
The model gave 51% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 46:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingZitraks
Death ProphetMagicaL
ZeusShisui
Monkey Kinglightless
TimbersawMastery
MarsFunn1k
PuckKidaro
MiranaKingR
RubickMira
Ogre Maginofear
Model check result
Model favoriteXactJlepbI · 54%
Series resultXactJlepbI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3