?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Castawakeloss 1:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Castawake

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Bob · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 1 game
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Fbz · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
DJ · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 1 game
100%
Lina
Lina
Bob · 1 game
0%

Execration

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Akashi · 14 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 10 games
50%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
90%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Tino- · 10 games
60%
Marci
Marci
Tino- · 10 games
30%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
550 picks · 617 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
478 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
465 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
389 picks · 806 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 535 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 805 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
347 picks · 307 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
337 picks · 389 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:30
Castawake 35%Execration 65%
The model gave 65% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 27:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperBob
50% · 92 games43% · 102 games
UnderlordPalos
Underlord
Enigma
EnigmaFbz
56% · 115 games43% · 315 games
PangolierTino-
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyDJ
49% · 422 games55% · 117 games
Shadow ShamanShanks
Shadow Shaman
52% · 95 games
Crystal Maidencml
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed55:27
Castawake 31%Execration 69%
The model gave 69% on Execration — the game was taken by Castawake in 40:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
38% · 205 games57% · 307 games
BristlebackPalos
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderBob
48% · 160 games49% · 78 games
SlardarTino-
Slardar
Tusk
TuskDJ
44% · 187 games57% · 134 games
Shadow ShamanShanks
Shadow Shaman
69% · 33 games
Banecml
Bane
Game 3prediction correct26:40
Castawake 32%Execration 68%
The model gave 68% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
44% · 207 games55% · 201 game
MuertaPalos
Muerta
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
46% · 151 game56% · 28 games
AxeTino-
Axe
Rubick
RubickDJ
43% · 73 games60% · 93 games
Naga Sirencml
Naga Siren
51% · 109 games
Shadow ShamanShanks
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 79%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3