PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionCcatizenfunswin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gods of Hellloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
catizenfuns
No games played over 6 months.
Gods of Hell
Windrangeroften banned
N1NE · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
CarJua · 1 game
Hoodwinkoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
CarJua · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
CarJua · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
CarJua · 1 game
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
406 picks · 445 bans
Rubick
404 picks · 337 bans
Weaver
383 picks · 823 bans
Tiny
377 picks · 880 bans
Phoenix
357 picks · 727 bans
Pangolier
333 picks · 514 bans
Clockwerk
326 picks · 493 bans
Dark Seer
293 picks · 669 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% catizenfuns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% catizenfuns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:18
catizenfuns 58%Gods of Hell 42%
The model gave 58% on catizenfuns — the game was taken by Gods of Hell in 27:52.
Game 2prediction correct29:45
catizenfuns 58%Gods of Hell 42%
The model gave 58% on catizenfuns — the game was taken by catizenfuns in 43:18.
Game 3prediction correct19:33
catizenfuns 58%Gods of Hell 42%
The model gave 58% on catizenfuns — the game was taken by catizenfuns in 43:35.
Model check result
Model favoritecatizenfuns · 58%
Series resultcatizenfuns 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3