Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragonloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Dragon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
85 picks · 195 bans
Mars
82 picks · 171 bans
Earth Spirit
73 picks · 59 bans
Void Spirit
64 picks · 119 bans
Undying
55 picks · 76 bans
Rubick
54 picks · 29 bans
Phoenix
52 picks · 68 bans
Wraith King
51 picks · 54 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:33
CDEC Gaming 55%Dragon 45%
The model gave 55% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Dragon in 34:15.
Game 2prediction missed43:10
CDEC Gaming 55%Dragon 45%
The model gave 55% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Dragon in 31:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 55%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2