Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dynastyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Dynasty
Mirana
Hy · 4 games
Earth Spirit
Hy · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Hy · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Hy · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Hy · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
Hy · 1 game
Tusk
Hy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 587 bans
Void Spirit
263 picks · 333 bans
Mars
233 picks · 411 bans
Earth Spirit
217 picks · 172 bans
Keeper of the Light
190 picks · 351 bans
Nyx Assassin
184 picks · 581 bans
Wraith King
183 picks · 244 bans
Rubick
182 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:7
CDEC Gaming 75%Dynasty 25%
The model gave 75% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Dynasty in 15:28.
Game 2prediction missed25:6
CDEC Gaming 75%Dynasty 25%
The model gave 75% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Dynasty in 17:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 75%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2