i-League 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Phoenix Gaming
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
pLAnet · 5 games
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
402 picks · 946 bans
Void Spirit
375 picks · 572 bans
Mars
331 picks · 610 bans
Death Prophet
294 picks · 583 bans
Earth Spirit
294 picks · 263 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 172 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 58%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed