Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shenzhenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 452 bans
Mars
495 picks · 693 bans
Bane
464 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 532 bans
Sand King
403 picks · 553 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 640 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 627 bans
Grimstroke
362 picks · 319 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:26
CDEC Gaming 51%Shenzhen 49%
The model gave 51% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 41:25.
Game 2prediction missed36:35
CDEC Gaming 51%Shenzhen 49%
The model gave 51% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 51:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 51%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2