Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionCACDUB Academyloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CCAPwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDUB Academy
No games played over 6 months.
CAP
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
736 picks · 614 bans
Disruptor
560 picks · 486 bans
Beastmaster
431 picks · 1047 bans
Doom
414 picks · 681 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 991 bans
Tiny
394 picks · 374 bans
Undying
390 picks · 609 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% CDUB Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% CAP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
CDUB Academy 24%CAP 76%
The model gave 76% on CAP — the game was taken by CAP.
Game 2prediction correct
CDUB Academy 24%CAP 76%
The model gave 76% on CAP — the game was taken by CAP.
Model check result
Model favoriteCAP · 76%
Series resultCAP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2