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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
CDUB Esportswin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fart Studiosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CDUB Esports

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Double King · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
Mark · 7 games
29%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Atoufix · 4 games
25%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Double King · 3 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mark · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 2 games
0%

Fart Studios

Lina
Linaoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jenkins · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sonic · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sonic · 1 game
100%
Magnus
Magnus
Sonic · 1 game
100%
Mirana
Mirana
Newsham · 1 game
0%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
BSJ · 1 game
0%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Jenkins · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
358 picks · 344 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
317 picks · 297 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
273 picks · 516 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
253 picks · 464 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
248 picks · 557 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
234 picks · 593 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
222 picks · 340 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
216 picks · 116 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:30
CDUB Esports 52%Fart Studios 48%
The model gave 52% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 47:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherislA
49% · 67 games58% · 76 games
BristlebackBSJ
Bristleback
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDouble King
45% · 279 games50% · 236 games
PangolieriAnnihilate
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMark
55% · 221 game52% · 96 games
ViperJenkins
Viper
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAfrOmoush
54% · 65 games52% · 431 game
TinyNewsham
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireSanctified
49% · 315 games41% · 108 games
JakiroSonic
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed38:54
CDUB Esports 52%Fart Studios 48%
The model gave 52% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 45:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterislA
57% · 236 games44% · 97 games
SniperBSJ
Sniper
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDouble King
45% · 157 games47% · 222 games
KunkkaiAnnihilate
Kunkka
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMark
52% · 70 games48% · 336 games
MarsJenkins
Mars
Rubick
RubickAfrOmoush
53% · 162 games51% · 306 games
TuskNewsham
Tusk
Tiny
TinySanctified
53% · 505 games50% · 169 games
Keeper of the LightSonic
Keeper of the Light
Game 3prediction correct43:14
CDUB Esports 53%Fart Studios 47%
The model gave 53% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 40:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMark
50% · 180 games44% · 71 game
SniperBSJ
Sniper
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerDouble King
50% · 74 games51% · 144 games
InvokeriAnnihilate
Invoker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterislA
55% · 169 games52% · 76 games
Night StalkerJenkins
Night Stalker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSanctified
47% · 117 games49% · 141 game
Keeper of the LightSonic
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickAfrOmoush
50% · 99 games51% · 207 games
TuskNewsham
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 53%
Series resultCDUB Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3