?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
CDUB Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fart Studioswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CDUB Esports

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Double King · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Mark · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 4 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
AfrOmoush · 4 games
75%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Atoufix · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mark · 3 games
33%

Fart Studios

Lina
Linaoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Newsham · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sonic · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Newsham · 3 games
67%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
BSJ · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Newsham · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jenkins · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
371 picks · 355 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
338 picks · 322 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
260 picks · 495 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
250 picks · 575 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
246 picks · 458 bans
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
235 picks · 599 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
222 picks · 129 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 355 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Fart Studios
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:36
CDUB Esports 51%Fart Studios 49%
The model gave 51% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMark
50% · 254 games59% · 64 games
Naga SirenBSJ
Naga Siren
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerDouble King
54% · 81 game48% · 188 games
LinaiAnnihilate
Lina
Lycan
LycanislA
49% · 102 games50% · 21 game
AxeJenkins
Axe
Rubick
RubickAfrOmoush
47% · 198 games53% · 113 games
PhoenixNewsham
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfireSanctified
46% · 244 games47% · 493 games
TinySonic
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed50:21
CDUB Esports 47%Fart Studios 53%
The model gave 53% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerDouble King
55% · 52 games53% · 61 game
Naga SirenBSJ
Naga Siren
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightislA
51% · 82 games58% · 58 games
SlardarJenkins
Slardar
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMark
37% · 112 games44% · 146 games
LinaiAnnihilate
Lina
Rubick
RubickAfrOmoush
48% · 121 game51% · 67 games
Dark WillowNewsham
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSanctified
49% · 107 games58% · 142 games
TimbersawSonic
Timbersaw
Game 3prediction correct17:27
CDUB Esports 48%Fart Studios 52%
The model gave 52% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 31:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerDouble King
54% · 45 games49% · 54 games
Naga SirenBSJ
Naga Siren
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMark
48% · 90 games49% · 126 games
LinaiAnnihilate
Lina
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerislA
49% · 58 games48% · 141 game
RazorJenkins
Razor
Rubick
RubickAfrOmoush
50% · 126 games49% · 46 games
Earth SpiritNewsham
Earth Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSanctified
49% · 123 games57% · 75 games
AbaddonSonic
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 50%
Series resultFart Studios 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3