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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
CDUB Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fart Studioswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubick
AfrOmoush · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 4 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sanctified · 4 games
75%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 2 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 2 games
50%

Fart Studios

Lina
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
71%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
BSJ · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Newsham · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Newsham · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sonic · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
Newsham · 3 games
67%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
BSJ · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jenkins · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
425 picks · 432 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
414 picks · 280 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 389 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
310 picks · 318 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
275 picks · 325 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
250 picks · 133 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
225 picks · 593 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
223 picks · 155 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Fart Studios
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
CDUB Esports 41%Fart Studios 59%
The model gave 59% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios.
Game 2prediction correct
CDUB Esports 41%Fart Studios 59%
The model gave 59% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios.
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 59%
Series resultFart Studios 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2