Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
CDUB Esportsloss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LLegacywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDUB Esports
Bloodseekersignature
Double King · 9 games
Tiny
Mark · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 4 games
Rubick
AfrOmoush · 4 games
Marcioften banned
Atoufix · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Mark · 3 games
Legacy
Leshracoften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Boris · 2 games
Tiny
Giant · 2 games
Tusk
Giant · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
red2 · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Boris · 1 game
Linaoften banned
red2 · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
371 picks · 356 bans
Tusk
337 picks · 321 bans
Marci
264 picks · 499 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 575 bans
Undying
246 picks · 459 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 601 bans
Snapfire
222 picks · 128 bans
Crystal Maiden
217 picks · 140 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 73%
Hero pool strength59% Legacy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Legacy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
CDUB Esports 48%Legacy 52%
The model gave 52% on Legacy — the game was taken by CDUB Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
CDUB Esports 48%Legacy 52%
The model gave 52% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy.
Game 3prediction correct
CDUB Esports 48%Legacy 52%
The model gave 52% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 52%
Series resultLegacy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3