Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
CDUB Esportswin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Kingpinloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDUB Esports
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 7 games
Tiny
Mark · 7 games
Marcioften banned
Atoufix · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
Double King · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Mark · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 2 games
Keeper of the Light
Mark · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 2 games
Team Kingpin
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
352 picks · 319 bans
Tusk
292 picks · 277 bans
Marci
273 picks · 518 bans
Undying
250 picks · 458 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 536 bans
Primal Beast
225 picks · 574 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 332 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 126 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Team Kingpin
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:19
CDUB Esports 68%Team Kingpin 32%
The model gave 68% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 29:37.
Game 2prediction correct40:8
CDUB Esports 68%Team Kingpin 32%
The model gave 68% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 25:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 68%
Series resultCDUB Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2