DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
chandogswin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SSkyreaversloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
chandogs
Storm Spirit
S1RENM · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Michael · 1 game
Puckoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
Snapfire
S1RENM · 1 game
Void Spirit
S1RENM · 1 game
Skyreavers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
530 picks · 342 bans
Dark Willow
459 picks · 250 bans
Mirana
408 picks · 184 bans
Winter Wyvern
360 picks · 334 bans
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 519 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 138 bans
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 295 bans
Earth Spirit
297 picks · 524 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Skyreavers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Skyreavers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
chandogs 34%Skyreavers 66%
The model gave 66% on Skyreavers — the game was taken by chandogs.
Game 2prediction missed
chandogs 34%Skyreavers 66%
The model gave 66% on Skyreavers — the game was taken by chandogs.
Model check result
Model favoriteSkyreavers · 66%
Series resultchandogs 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2