Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
chandogsloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TRocketwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
chandogs
No games played over 6 months.
TRocket
Snapfire
Pamplona · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
CarJua · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Luna
CarJua · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 591 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 445 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 379 bans
Nature's Prophet
413 picks · 689 bans
Beastmaster
412 picks · 971 bans
Undying
401 picks · 592 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 210 bans
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 906 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% chandogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% TRocket
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:15
chandogs 48%TRocket 52%
The model gave 52% on TRocket — the game was taken by TRocket in 37:14.
Game 2prediction correct10:42
chandogs 48%TRocket 52%
The model gave 52% on TRocket — the game was taken by TRocket in 25:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteTRocket · 52%
Series resultTRocket 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2