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BLAST Slam VII. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
chandogsloss 0:2
series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

chandogs

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Argius · 2 games
0%
Luna
Luna
Argius · 2 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Argius · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkka
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Leshrac
Leshrac
mini-` · 1 game
0%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 37 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 25 games
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 24 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Hellscream · 18 games
33%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 17 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 16 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
677 picks · 844 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 582 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 429 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
476 picks · 334 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
418 picks · 1140 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 688 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 621 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
395 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
chandogs 21%Virtus.pro 79%
The model gave 79% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierS1RENM
41% · 262 games62% · 54 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
56% · 67 games
Sand KingAbed
Sand King
64% · 7 games
LargoSabeRLight-
Largo
73% · 18 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
41% · 116 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct27:5
chandogs 10%Virtus.pro 90%
The model gave 90% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 90%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2