The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionCChapulineswin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MWMineral waterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chapulines
No games played over 6 months.
Mineral water
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
481 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 749 bans
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 638 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 411 bans
Batrider
403 picks · 759 bans
Rubick
383 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
355 picks · 1041 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 742 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Chapulines
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Chapulines
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Chapulines 50%Mineral water 50%
The model gave 50% on Chapulines — the game was taken by Chapulines.
Game 2prediction missed
Chapulines 50%Mineral water 50%
The model gave 50% on Chapulines — the game was taken by Mineral water.
Game 3prediction correct
Chapulines 50%Mineral water 50%
The model gave 50% on Chapulines — the game was taken by Chapulines.
Model check result
Model favoriteChapulines · 50%
Series resultChapulines 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3