The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionCChapulinesloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
THThe Hutwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chapulines
Dawnbreaker
Satoshi- · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Ifrit · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Satoshi- · 1 game
Windrangeroften banned
Ifrit · 1 game
The Hut
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 227 bans
Tiny
457 picks · 750 bans
Gyrocopter
436 picks · 416 bans
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 632 bans
Batrider
402 picks · 742 bans
Rubick
383 picks · 168 bans
Dragon Knight
357 picks · 1025 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 725 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% The Hut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Chapulines
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:45
Chapulines 49%The Hut 51%
The model gave 51% on The Hut — the game was taken by The Hut in 29:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerSatoshi-
Nyx Assassinbgod
WindrangerIfrit
Game 2prediction missed16:44
Chapulines 56%The Hut 44%
The model gave 56% on Chapulines — the game was taken by The Hut in 30:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverIfrit
Pudgebgod
TimbersawSatoshi-
Model check result
Model favoriteChapulines · 58%
Series resultThe Hut 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2