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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cheeki_Breekiloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cheeki_Breeki

Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Malik · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
OneJey · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Xakoda · 2 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Malik · 2 games
50%

AVULUS

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 17 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
40%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Wein · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
564 picks · 706 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
510 picks · 350 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 659 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 546 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
412 picks · 138 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
397 picks · 186 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 519 bans
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 521 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 35%
Hero pool strength51% Cheeki_Breeki
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Cheeki_Breeki
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:32
Cheeki_Breeki 59%AVULUS 41%
The model gave 59% on Cheeki_Breeki — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:01:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLorenof
50% · 329 games54% · 218 games
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
Templar Assassin
Abaddon
AbaddonDarkLord^
55% · 380 games51% · 176 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Mars
MarsMalik
51% · 304 games43% · 496 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightOneJey
54% · 136 games50% · 200 games
Shadow ShamanWein
Shadow Shaman
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
45% · 355 games48% · 414 games
Jakiroasdekor_r
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed9:28
Cheeki_Breeki 57%AVULUS 43%
The model gave 57% on Cheeki_Breeki — the game was taken by AVULUS in 30:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperLorenof
48% · 78 games45% · 223 games
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ursa
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordDarkLord^
48% · 140 games49% · 362 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
56% · 359 games50% · 176 games
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyOneJey
50% · 511 games55% · 115 games
Bounty HunterWein
Bounty Hunter
Dazzle
DazzleXakoda
53% · 109 games47% · 321 game
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteCheeki_Breeki · 64%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2