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Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chicken Fighters

No games played over 6 months.

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Muka · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 3 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Muka · 3 games
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
633 · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
0%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
442 picks · 979 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
418 picks · 577 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 704 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 601 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
313 picks · 305 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
299 picks · 265 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 190 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
274 picks · 401 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 36%
Hero pool strength57% Chicken Fighters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed58:42
Chicken Fighters 72%Fantastic Five 28%
The model gave 72% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 51:05.
Game 2prediction missed41:26
Chicken Fighters 72%Fantastic Five 28%
The model gave 72% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 36:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 72%
Series resultChicken Fighters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2