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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fightersloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ghost frogswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chicken Fighters

No games played over 6 months.

Ghost frogs

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 6 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 6 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
j4 · 5 games
40%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
MiLAN · 4 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
j4 · 3 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Tobi · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 947 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
375 picks · 531 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
344 picks · 700 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
330 picks · 546 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
318 picks · 318 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
284 picks · 160 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 281 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 65%
Hero pool strength51% Ghost frogs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:31
Chicken Fighters 55%Ghost frogs 45%
The model gave 55% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 32:11.
Game 2prediction missed43:27
Chicken Fighters 55%Ghost frogs 45%
The model gave 55% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 1:10:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 55%
Series resultGhost frogs 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2