The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 19 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
NARMAN · 18 games
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 17 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 17 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
NARMAN · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
ntakii · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 9 games
Gyrocopter
kAAN · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
467 picks · 191 bans
Snapfire
375 picks · 207 bans
Mars
360 picks · 583 bans
Puck
352 picks · 870 bans
Grimstroke
331 picks · 308 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 245 bans
Ancient Apparition
315 picks · 443 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 408 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Chicken Fighters
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:23
Chicken Fighters 69%No Bounty Hunter 31%
The model gave 69% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 23:52.
Game 2prediction missed33:18
Chicken Fighters 69%No Bounty Hunter 31%
The model gave 69% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 40:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 69%
Series resultChicken Fighters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2