Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
CHILLAXwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Hippomaniacs
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
255 picks · 357 bans
Tidehunter
255 picks · 382 bans
Monkey King
253 picks · 589 bans
Bane
223 picks · 154 bans
Void Spirit
215 picks · 252 bans
Lion
214 picks · 100 bans
Lina
211 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
206 picks · 255 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Hippomaniacs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:3
CHILLAX 51%Hippomaniacs 49%
The model gave 51% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 25:43.
Game 2prediction missed13:33
CHILLAX 51%Hippomaniacs 49%
The model gave 51% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 36:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 51%
Series resultCHILLAX 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2