Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
CHILLAXwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilgunloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
457 picks · 266 bans
Mars
403 picks · 560 bans
Tiny
344 picks · 398 bans
Death Prophet
331 picks · 669 bans
Ember Spirit
297 picks · 431 bans
Weaver
290 picks · 346 bans
Sand King
288 picks · 367 bans
Templar Assassin
262 picks · 560 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% CHILLAX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:46
CHILLAX 51%Lilgun 49%
The model gave 51% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by Lilgun in 27:47.
Game 2prediction missed34:25
CHILLAX 51%Lilgun 49%
The model gave 51% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by Lilgun in 36:01.
Game 3prediction missed37:7
CHILLAX 51%Lilgun 49%
The model gave 51% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by Lilgun in 25:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 51%
Series resultCHILLAX 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3