DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportswin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chimera Esports
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 8 games
Muertasignature
OneJey · 8 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Panto · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 6 games
Tusksignature
Panto · 6 games
Magnusoften banned
TA2000 · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Lorenof · 5 games
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Hoodwink
jAMES · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Rubick
jAMES · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
411 picks · 538 bans
Muerta
407 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
365 picks · 385 bans
Lion
354 picks · 179 bans
Batrider
352 picks · 435 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 582 bans
Beastmaster
334 picks · 810 bans
Gyrocopter
327 picks · 504 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 53%
Hero pool strength67% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Chimera Esports 87%Winter Bear 13%
The model gave 87% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 26:26.
Game 2prediction correct34:16
Chimera Esports 87%Winter Bear 13%
The model gave 87% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 32:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 87%
Series resultChimera Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2