DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionCBChimpanzini Bananiniwin 2:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Peru Rejectsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chimpanzini Bananini
No games played over 6 months.
Peru Rejects
Warlock
Yadomi · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
payk · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Frank · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
DarkMago · 1 game
Elder Titan
Yadomi · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Frank · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
298 picks · 742 bans
Disruptor
280 picks · 255 bans
Shadow Shaman
273 picks · 173 bans
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 683 bans
Pugna
257 picks · 275 bans
Tusk
250 picks · 243 bans
Marci
248 picks · 688 bans
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 572 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:23
Chimpanzini Bananini 27%Peru Rejects 73%
The model gave 73% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 33:06.
Game 2prediction missed30:4
Chimpanzini Bananini 27%Peru Rejects 73%
The model gave 73% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Chimpanzini Bananini in 33:32.
Game 3prediction missed35:18
Chimpanzini Bananini 27%Peru Rejects 73%
The model gave 73% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Chimpanzini Bananini in 40:45.
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 73%
Series resultChimpanzini Bananini 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3