ChipiChipichapa vs Pacific esports — prediction EOB2ОК · Dota 2

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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

CChipiChipichapawin 2:1

series probability

63%37%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Pacific esportsloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ChipiChipichapa

No games played over 6 months.

Pacific esports

Ember Spiritoften banned

Mingatte · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Centaur Warrunner

300 picks · 436 bans

55%

Phoenix

274 picks · 410 bans

49%

Grimstroke

260 picks · 442 bans

51%

Lion

229 picks · 207 bans

51%

Tusk

229 picks · 212 bans

47%

Nature's Prophet

227 picks · 640 bans

53%

Vengeful Spirit

224 picks · 119 bans

53%

Pangolier

218 picks · 310 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%

Hero pool strength55% ChipiChipichapa

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total63% ChipiChipichapa

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed29:36

ChipiChipichapa 58%Pacific esports 42%

The model gave 58% on ChipiChipichapa — the game was taken by Pacific esports in 43:03.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo