Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs predictionCChipsblloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NMNo Monkey Businesswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chipsbl
Pangolieroften banned
Tabletkee · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tabletkee · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tabletkee · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
Tabletkee · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Tabletkee · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Tabletkee · 1 game
No Monkey Business
Razoroften banned
xannii · 9 games
Hoodwink
illusion · 8 games
Kunkkasignature
xannii · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 6 games
Marsoften banned
MieRo · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
MieRo · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
437 picks · 276 bans
Mars
425 picks · 573 bans
Tiny
389 picks · 450 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 732 bans
Sand King
327 picks · 446 bans
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 467 bans
Pangolier
283 picks · 428 bans
Storm Spirit
282 picks · 419 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% No Monkey Business
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:33
Chipsbl 43%No Monkey Business 57%
The model gave 57% on No Monkey Business — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsTabletkee
Phantom Lancerxannii
59% · 101 game
Dragon KnightmeLes
44% · 111 games
PuckEgor
47% · 129 games
Hoodwinkillusion
Game 2prediction correct15:41
Chipsbl 38%No Monkey Business 62%
The model gave 62% on No Monkey Business — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 38:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightTabletkee
Kunkkaxannii
65% · 30 games
RazorEgor
49% · 64 games
PangoliermeLes
57% · 10 games
Skywrath Mageillusion
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Monkey Business · 68%
Series resultNo Monkey Business 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2