Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionCchoteroswin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TTMUloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
choteros
No games played over 6 months.
TMU
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
447 picks · 1008 bans
Void Spirit
421 picks · 612 bans
Mars
369 picks · 653 bans
Death Prophet
340 picks · 642 bans
Earth Spirit
331 picks · 283 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 380 bans
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
Wraith King
263 picks · 434 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% choteros
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% TMU
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTMU · 53%
Series resultchoteros 2:0
Series predictionmissed