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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultraloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
496 Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cignal Ultra

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 9 games
78%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 5 games
40%
Sand King
Sand King
Jamesy · 5 games
60%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Abat · 4 games
25%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 3 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 3 games
33%

496 Gaming

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 8 games
75%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 7 games
43%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Red · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Red · 4 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Red · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Bombi · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 3 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 979 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
406 picks · 569 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
367 picks · 707 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 586 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
308 picks · 294 bans
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
306 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
300 picks · 206 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
256 picks · 138 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 18%
Hero pool strength52% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Cignal Ultra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:36
Cignal Ultra 51%496 Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 27:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainJamesy
42% · 8 games63% · 14 games
OracleBombi
Oracle
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAb1ng
30% · 6 games
Game 2prediction missed35:44
Cignal Ultra 54%496 Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAb1ng
64% · 18 games38% · 34 games
GrimstrokeBombi
Grimstroke
Tiny
TinyJamesy
60% · 16 games
Model check result
Model favoriteCignal Ultra · 53%
Series result496 Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2