?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultrawin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cignal Ultra

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 6 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Abat · 2 games
100%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 2 games
0%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 7 games
71%
Riki
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 3 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 3 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 3 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Lym- · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
db- · 3 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
167 picks · 378 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
162 picks · 297 bans
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
152 picks · 122 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
143 picks · 210 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
127 picks · 145 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
111 picks · 199 bans
55%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
111 picks · 378 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
106 picks · 57 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 31%
Hero pool strength55% Cignal Ultra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Cignal Ultra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:24
Cignal Ultra 48%Army Geniuses 52%
The model gave 52% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 44:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAbat
43% · 3 games60% · 12 games
MorphlingMamangDaya
Morphling
Mars
MarsJamesy
42% · 45 games50% · 4 games
Pugnadb-
Pugna
50% · 4 games
Night StalkerwoMy
Night Stalker
59% · 28 games
Earth SpiritLym-
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction missed17:41
Cignal Ultra 56%Army Geniuses 44%
The model gave 56% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 35:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dazzle
DazzleAbat
little data55% · 7 games
Troll WarlordMamangDaya
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritJamesy
60% · 22 games38% · 4 games
Iodb-
Io
29% · 3 games
Sand KingwoMy
Sand King
33% · 8 games
MiranaLym-
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct35:16
Cignal Ultra 54%Army Geniuses 46%
The model gave 54% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAbat
57% · 15 games56% · 17 games
MorphlingMamangDaya
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritJamesy
39% · 20 gameslittle data
Iodb-
Io
little data
Legion CommanderwoMy
Legion Commander
51% · 18 games
MiranaLym-
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteCignal Ultra · 54%
Series resultCignal Ultra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3