Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultraloss 1:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Lilgunloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cignal Ultra
Phantom Assassin
Abat · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Alchemist
Abat · 1 game
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
53 picks · 87 bans
Puck
42 picks · 101 bans
Earth Spirit
39 picks · 30 bans
Void Spirit
37 picks · 58 bans
Monkey King
28 picks · 60 bans
Phoenix
28 picks · 37 bans
Undying
28 picks · 52 bans
Mirana
27 picks · 32 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:37
Cignal Ultra 48%Lilgun 52%
The model gave 52% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 27:58.
Game 2prediction missed31:29
Cignal Ultra 48%Lilgun 52%
The model gave 52% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 47:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2